THE SENATE IS IN PLAY – AT 7:51 P.M. ET:  That is, according to Charlie Cook, one of our best political analysts.  Dick Morris believes the Senate will definitely go GOP.  Cook is a big more cautious, and notes that a 10-seat pickup would be needed.  From tomorrow's National Journal:

...the possibility of a GOP takeover is growing.

To be sure, a 10-seat gain for Republicans remains hard. Eighteen Senate seats could plausibly turn over -- a dozen held by Democrats and six by Republicans. Looking first at the five open seats -- Florida, Kentucky, Missouri, New Hampshire, and Ohio -- that the GOP is defending, the Republican challenger holds the lead in each race. Granite State voters won't select nominees until September 14, but former Attorney General Kelly Ayotte, the Republican with the best chance of defeating Rep. Paul Hodes, the presumptive Democratic nominee, is increasingly favored to win the GOP nod. None of the Republican leads in these five states is insurmountable, but at this point, you would rather be the GOP nominee than the Democratic one in each place...

...Suffice it to say that Republicans have a good shot of holding all their seats. If that's true, then the GOP would need to win 10 Democratic-held seats to win the majority.

Is it possible?

If I had to make a wager today, I would bet that the open seats in Illinois and Pennsylvania will also fall to Republicans, although both races remain quite competitive and are hardly over. If my hunch is correct, Republicans would gain six seats. That brings us to Democratic incumbents Michael Bennet (Colorado), Barbara Boxer (California), Russell Feingold (Wisconsin), Patty Murray (Washington), and Harry Reid (Nevada), who are all roughly even-money bets. Boxer, Murray, and Reid have statistically insignificant leads over their challengers, while Bennet and Feingold trail their opponents by similarly insignificant margins.

In Connecticut, where the seat is open, Democrats are watching their once huge lead erode rapidly. Some Republicans are also eyeing the West Virginia open seat, noting that President Obama's job-approval ratings in the Mountaineer State are among his lowest in the country...

It's a tall order for the Republicans, but within reason:

The odds still favor Democrats holding their majority, but that is no longer given.

COMMENT:  My own sense is that, if the elections were held today, the Republicans would fall just short, and we'd have a 52-18 Senate, with the Dems still in charge.  However, that is hardly a working majority.  Senators must represent entire states, not just gerrymandered congressional districts, and tend to be more moderate than some House firebrands, whose seats are safe.  Democratic senators will not be willing to commit suicide to satisfy the House revolutionaries.

September 3, 2010